The Kyoto Protocol: Twelve Years On

With the majority of the world’s governments set to have representatives at the Climate Change Conference in the Danish capital, Copenhagen, at the end of this year, there is naturally a great deal of interest and desire that the parties present will be able to get a deal in place whereby the world works at bringing down the carbon emissions on a country-by-country basis. This is, after all, the mood that was taken into a similar meeting in Kyoto, Japan twelve years ago. At the end of that conference there was a deal on the table – but slowly it became clear that the deal was not on the terms that many of the signatories found desirable. The very reason that the parties concerned are due to meet in Copenhagen is the failure to set terms at Kyoto that were fitting for each country.

Famously the United States, although a signatory to the protocol laid down in the agreement made at Kyoto, has never ratified nor withdrawn from the agreement, but it has been clear since early this decade that they wished to renegotiate what was laid down in the Kyoto bill. Critics of the agreement felt that it singled out the United States as a country which had to do more than others, and that attempting to live up to the provisions laid down in the bill would seriously and negatively affect the viability of the US economy. Indeed, the most skeptical commentators felt that the entire bill was slanted in favour of persuading the US to bend over backwards to do more than anyone else, and was an anti-American document per se.

In the light of these feelings, it became impossible to see how the United States would ever ratify Kyoto’s protocol, especially when it elected the notorious climate change skeptic George W Bush to two terms in office as President. Many people’s hopes for a move at the Copenhagen conference lean on the fact that Barack Obama is seen as more amenable to Green politics, and although there is evidence to support this it remains to be seen whether first of all Mr Obama is prepared to sign up to terms which will suit the other signatories to the bill, and secondly whether he will be able to carry with him a Congress which has become more partisan than ever in recent times, with the President having endless difficulties steering through a healthcare bill that carries no elements which would give the majority of other countries much pause for thought.

It is largely accepted that the Kyoto protocol are to all intents and purposes dead in the water. While countries have independently gone about meeting their requirements as set out in the document, it was a document that depended upon the agreement of all signatories if it was to meet its own requirements. Any bill now agreed may well be the son of the requirements set out at Kyoto, but the fact remains that without some quite searching negotiation, Copenhagen may well not be the endgame in the battle against climate change

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Keep Green Issues Simple

For those of us who have an environmentalist outlook on things, there is often a problem with the size of the issue. Yes, the environment is a matter for concern – no-one could possibly deny that and retain a modicum of credibility – but which part of it do we look at first? Taken as a whole, the environment itself covers such a broad range of topics that it is difficult to pin down. This is perhaps where the movement has failed in the past – as much goodwill as there is for green issues, it has been difficult to nail down a list of priorities which will allow the problems to be dealt with on their merits. As a result, from the outside the green movement looks like a disorganised rabble squabbling about which issue should take precedence. As time goes on, it is hoped that this will become a thing of the past.

As we await the December conference on the Environment in Copenhagen, Denmark, the environmental movement does seem to be shaking its priorities into some sort of order. Top among them seems to be the issue of carbon and its related problems. Carbon deposits in our atmosphere have all sorts of effects that we would be well advised to avoid, but we as a global population have been slow to stop them from increasing. Although most of the world’s nations have a Green party which participates in national elections, in no major country has such a party been elected to form the basis of a government. Parties of government tend to offer more vocal support than logistic solutions where the environment is concerned, and thus the will to do something is often frustrated by issues such as the economy or defence.

The hope is that the conference in December, set to be the focus of a previously unseen level of medi a and public interest (for an environmental issue), will galvanise governments into actually doing something cogent to improve the state of the environment. After the Kyoto protocol were decided in 1997, the plan laid out to reduce carbon emissions by a significant level over the following twenty years slowly unravelled, as the United States refused to ratify the arrangement and other nations which had ratified showed little thirst to stick to their guns. Copenhagen is seen as a chance to move on from the disappointment of the aftermath.

Already, however, we are hearing that Copenhagen may not herald the signing of any new deal on carbon emissions – or at any rate, any deal which will mean much globally. For those of us with an eye on a greener future, it could be a frustrating fortnight. In order to ensure that something is at least done, the best bet may be to do it yourself. We as individuals may not be able to deliver the kind of results the governments could, but this is no reason to back off from your own plans. A lot of small steps can make up a long journey, and it is worth remembering that.

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